Thursday, July 26, 2007

Hysteria leads to inanity

So there's a big hullabaloo at Long Beach Airport about a "suspicious piece of luggage". What was it? A video game. Yes, Long Beach had just joined Boston in the ranks of the terminally stupid.

NP: NPR: 07-26-2007 Most E-Mailed Stories
WC: 49,133. ECD: 12 Mar 2008.

Real estate investors making bad deals

I noticed this morning that 1100 S Corning, a duplex, is for sale again. It was just on the market last summer and sold in November for 1.75 million. Rents for comparable units in the neighborhood are around $3000/month. Oops. This buyer bought something that the rents would cover a mortgage of 40% of the purchase price. Yep, it would take a 60% downpayment to have the rents allow the buyer to break even (forget about maintenance and common utility cost, this is just property tax and a ridiculously low rate mortgage). And, it's subject to rent stabilization so it's going to take a lot of 4%/year increases to change that. Another property a few blocks away is listed at 1.175 million (it's been owned since 1972, so this owner can come down without taking a bath, unless they over-financed along the way).

My rule of thumb for a rental property's value: Add up the total rent that the property earns and multiply by 1000. That means that this property is worth about $600,000.

A friend lives in East Hollywood, in a building whose owners apparently put a great deal of effort into renovating and improving. But that doesn't change the fact that their tenants live under rent stabilization as well, so the 8000/month gross rent doesn't really justify the 1.2million they hope to get for the property. Here, with a 20% downpayment and commercial loan, the rents will cover the mortgage and property taxes, but nothing else.

Here's my free advice to would-be real estate moguls: You don't make your money on commercial real estate through appreciation, you make it through rent. And if prices get too high compared to rent, buying is a bad idea. There are going to be a lot of small rental properties going into REO soon.

NP: NPR: 07-24-2007: Most e-mailed stories.
WC: 49,133. ECD: 12 Mar 2008.

Tuesday, July 3, 2007

Big Blue Bollix

So the Big Blue Bus raised their fares (in strange and inscrutable ways that don't actually affect me financially) and in the process they decided to invalidate all existing Little Blue Cards and have everyone get new ones. All at once.

Not surprisingly, this has not worked out well. The main library ran out on the first day of availability and because the people at the bus office are stupid and lazy, they likely won't have new ones until Thursday. Expect those to go quickly with another new supply not there until Monday. Because apparently, the fact that there would be above-average demand for new cards didn't occur to anyone at the bus office.

The employees at the bus office, I found to be rather rude and uninterested in doing anything other than defending their laziness on this front. "We have four libraries and UCLA to keep stocked," one said. And yet, they can't even make sure that the library that's FOUR BLOCKS AWAY has cards.

I had intended originally on using just one free ride this week since I like the idea that I'm putting money into public transit with my fares, but after this experience, I'll use all four free rides as a big fuck you to the people at 7th and Olympic.

Hey Big Blue Bus people, next time you pull a stunt like this, let me suggest doing the following:

  • Keep your office open late for the first couple weeks of transition
  • Make the new cards available before the changeover
  • Be proactive about keeping the libraries stocked with cards, maybe even have some temporary distribution locations, like, say, a cart on the promenade
  • Design things so that it isn't a forced all-at-once transition of cards... there's no reason that there can't be at least a week's overlap of new and old cards.

NP: "Coda Requiem," Robert Fripp, Rhythm And Brews, Chattanooga, February 27, 2006
WC: 48,842, ECD: 20 Jul 2007.